Cold start chatter
#877
Been following this discussion here and on Mini2. My 09 MCS is being built now at Oxford (another point of chagrin). Looking forward to having the car with some trepidation. Question, I tend to agree with Tom's diagnosis of poor HLA oiling but if true, why does shutting off the engine as soon as the death rattle appears, waiting 1-2 minutes, then restarting work at eliminating the rattle? With the engine off there is no oil being pumped. Just wondering. ANother question for which there is no answer: anyone with a rough idea of the percentage of turbos affected? 10? 25? more?
I was thinking about the actual number of cases the other day and rooted around. I found the following:
I first looked up NAM's cold-start "database" thread. 169 posts, minus 101 DISCUSSION posts, left 68 reported cases of the problem. Even though the thread was marked "no discussion", 59% of the posts were discussion and did not report a new case.
This got me thinking: if, on a thread marked "database, no discussion" a majority of the posts were essentially repeats, what does that tell us about the other threads and what sort of actual numbers they represent?
There are 876 posts on this thread. Add that to the 169 on the database thread equals 1,045 posts discussing 68 actual cases of cold-start rattle made on NAM. This means a ratio of problems to posts of about 6%.
Given that database threads are rare, I would think that outside of NAM, the ratio of problems to posts is lower by a bit. That would make for a lot of posts being generated by a very small number of actual problems.
Here's another way of looking at it. There were 54,077 Minis sold in the US in 2008. 6% of that number is 2,644. If those are the people who get the cold-start noise, AND each person posts 10 times about the problem, that makes for 26,440 posts, 26 times the number of posts here in NAM, for a problem that effects only 6% of all the MINIs in the USA.
Note that I low-balled the number of posts per person, to factor in the people not on-line, or who choose not to post at all, or (like me) don't have the problem and post about it, anyway.
I think the only point this makes is it's impossible to obtain meaningful, real-world occurance rates from web posts. Too many variables and an incomplete sampling of the population.
#879
You're going about the math the wrong way...
let's use round number. 100 people who post on NAM have the problem. If there are 5000 R55/R56 S owners on NAM, that's about 2% of the cars. While this is a small percentage, it's huge in terms of potential engine problems. In three years of the Prince engine, that's 750k cars, say a quarter are the turbo.... Or 190k Turbo engines. 2% of that is 3000-4000 cars that have the issue.
And that's a minimum because it assumes everyone that has it posts. If only half do (and there are a lot of reasons that people might not want to post), then that's getting close to 10k cars with the problem world wide. That's a huge number if you think about the potential impact. If they did a recall where it was $1000 per car to fix, that's $10,000,000 in potential warranty costs! Yikes!
Once again, this is using very round numbers, but it gives one an idea of the potential magnatude. Also a 2% chance that a new MCS will have some potentially severe engine issue that may or may not be covered by Mini would give many new buyers pause....
Matt
And that's a minimum because it assumes everyone that has it posts. If only half do (and there are a lot of reasons that people might not want to post), then that's getting close to 10k cars with the problem world wide. That's a huge number if you think about the potential impact. If they did a recall where it was $1000 per car to fix, that's $10,000,000 in potential warranty costs! Yikes!
Once again, this is using very round numbers, but it gives one an idea of the potential magnatude. Also a 2% chance that a new MCS will have some potentially severe engine issue that may or may not be covered by Mini would give many new buyers pause....
Matt
#881
let's use round number. 100 people who post on NAM have the problem. If there are 5000 R55/R56 S owners on NAM, that's about 2% of the cars. While this is a small percentage, it's huge in terms of potential engine problems. In three years of the Prince engine, that's 750k cars, say a quarter are the turbo.... Or 190k Turbo engines. 2% of that is 3000-4000 cars that have the issue.
And that's a minimum because it assumes everyone that has it posts. If only half do (and there are a lot of reasons that people might not want to post), then that's getting close to 10k cars with the problem world wide. That's a huge number if you think about the potential impact. If they did a recall where it was $1000 per car to fix, that's $10,000,000 in potential warranty costs! Yikes!
Once again, this is using very round numbers, but it gives one an idea of the potential magnitude. Also a 2% chance that a new MCS will have some potentially severe engine issue that may or may not be covered by Mini would give many new buyers pause....
Matt
And that's a minimum because it assumes everyone that has it posts. If only half do (and there are a lot of reasons that people might not want to post), then that's getting close to 10k cars with the problem world wide. That's a huge number if you think about the potential impact. If they did a recall where it was $1000 per car to fix, that's $10,000,000 in potential warranty costs! Yikes!
Once again, this is using very round numbers, but it gives one an idea of the potential magnitude. Also a 2% chance that a new MCS will have some potentially severe engine issue that may or may not be covered by Mini would give many new buyers pause....
Matt
Extending the use of your figures a bit further based on my own observations here on NAM, let's say of the 100 people you postulate are posting half of them (50) have unambiguously heard the death rattle but believe it is "normal" either due to blissful ignorance, assumptions from past experience, or a tacit reassurance from their dealer. Another 25 or so have a nagging feeling about the potential severity but have no plans to keep their MINI past the warranty period so to them absence of cost risk = little to fret about. So the number of posters who are actively trying to socialize the issue represents only 0.5% or less of R55/R56 owners on NAM with their online presence further diluted by exclusively 1st Gen posters. It's no wonder that BMW can remain evasive on the magnitude of the issue and continue to consider our online complaints "in the noise."
The real interesting statistics would be the actual dealer records of reported death rattle complaints and associated engine failures. The one report in this thread offering insight into a single dealer's experience in a relatively small market revealed that this dealer had "...already replaced several engines for broken timing chains, and that one just came into the shop this morning." Multiply this by the total number of dealerships, bump it up further by the relative market share, and you end up with a fairly significant number. By contrast, I'm only aware of a handful of posts across several different online MINI communities that report related engine failures due to chain breakage. The logical conclusion is that the frequency of engine failures is under-reported online as well.
I'm also seeing a gradually growing number of people who fall into your potential "buyers pause" category. I'm one of them, as I have no reason to believe that the R57 is not similarly afflicted.
#882
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but then also consider the number of US bbs forums, that many of those members may not belong to NAM, and going across the pond to the merry old UK M2 and Europe in general, Australia-- this could be a global thing, esp if certain Peugeot cars are afflicted. so if U take the NAM numbers and add roughly a conservative 30%... U bet yr sweet **** that bmw/psa engineers are sweating this one, 'cause it could snowball on them just like that >snap< as these engines age and gain miles. I smell bad medicine down the path.
been about 1K since I had my first rattle, but everytime I start it cold, I hold my breath, even at 60 degrees...
(maybe BMW/MINI better go back to Chrysler/Fiat for thier future engines)
been about 1K since I had my first rattle, but everytime I start it cold, I hold my breath, even at 60 degrees...
(maybe BMW/MINI better go back to Chrysler/Fiat for thier future engines)
Last edited by sequence; 02-28-2009 at 07:55 AM.
#883
#884
Think about it...
what I did was take NAM as a representative pool, estimate a percentage, then look at the whole pool of cars produced. That last step would add in every other BBS and non-internet connected people as well.
By looking at the percentages of other forums, the 2%-3% number might get more accurate, and that would effect the total number estimated. Whatever the number, I think my estimate is probably within a factor of 2 one way or the other.
Matt
By looking at the percentages of other forums, the 2%-3% number might get more accurate, and that would effect the total number estimated. Whatever the number, I think my estimate is probably within a factor of 2 one way or the other.
Matt
#885
Absent definitive information as to the cause of the rattle, it is also possible that ALL turbo engines are affected, but that many have not yet manifested the problem for whatever reason.
Now, more questions to ponder: 1) assume Mini finally identifies a fix and applies it only to those cars which have experienced the problem. Having not experienced the problem how would you (not Matt, but any owner) feel about keeping your Mini beyond the warranty period if the engine warranty is not extended? If the problem is truly a small percentage, I would think this the likely outcome.
2) Assume Mini instead applies the fix to all turbo vehicles, but does not extend the warranty. Your car had the rattle, and now runs fine. However, you have no way of knowing if there was any internal damage done. Without an extended engine warranty, how comfortable are you keeping your former death rattle car? Does that change if Mini tells you there was no damage caused to the car if the chain did not break?
I bring these up because at some point Mini will solve this. These are real world questions that Mini owners may have to answer in the future.
#886
#887
To answer the question, I won't know what I'll do when I hear the noise until I hear it. Given the videos of the problem are inconclusive, and it's impossible to tell exactly what is causing the noise even with the engine torn down, all I can do is drive my car as I've always done until it breaks, then get it fixed to the best I can get it done. If the problem is the rattle and I can't get it fixed, then I'm going to judge the problem based on the conditions I see in front of me.
My point earlier was that it's very difficult to derive population data from web posts. There are too many variables involved and I was trying to show that even a small percentage of malfunctions in a large fleet of cars could trigger a lot of posts, making the problem seem bigger than it really is.
My point earlier was that it's very difficult to derive population data from web posts. There are too many variables involved and I was trying to show that even a small percentage of malfunctions in a large fleet of cars could trigger a lot of posts, making the problem seem bigger than it really is.
#888
Percentage of JWC With the Problem?
I am considering a new 09 JCW 6-speed and have read through this thread. It appears that there are few factory JCWs that have this problem, is that an accurate assessment? Or, am I just falsely trying to convince myself that the risk is low because I really like the JCW? Thanks!
regards,
Michael
regards,
Michael
#889
I am considering a new 09 JCW 6-speed and have read through this thread. It appears that there are few factory JCWs that have this problem, is that an accurate assessment? Or, am I just falsely trying to convince myself that the risk is low because I really like the JCW? Thanks!
regards,
Michael
regards,
Michael
We're all hoping the fix is immenent ...
Last edited by oldMGguy; 03-01-2009 at 11:59 AM.
#893
#894
#895
Here's another way of looking at it. There were 54,077 Minis sold in the US in 2008. 6% of that number is 2,644. If those are the people who get the cold-start noise, AND each person posts 10 times about the problem, that makes for 26,440 posts, 26 times the number of posts here in NAM, for a problem that effects only 6% of all the MINIs in the USA.
There is no doubt that this problem is very common; what is in doubt is the severity of the problem. There are only now starting to be reports of owners who have experienced this noise and subsequently had a broken timing chain, which may (or may not) be related. Given that a design flaw in the timing chain mechanism is where BMW/MINI have focused their attention, a resulting broken timing chain seems like a possible outcome in extreme cases. Of course, it could only be coincidental.
#896
There is no doubt that this problem is very common; what is in doubt is the severity of the problem. There are only now starting to be reports of owners who have experienced this noise and subsequently had a broken timing chain, which may (or may not) be related. Given that a design flaw in the timing chain mechanism is where BMW/MINI have focused their attention, a resulting broken timing chain seems like a possible outcome in extreme cases. Of course, it could only be coincidental.
#898
Just off the top of my head, here are 3 with multiple reports in two of them:
http://www.r56mcs.com/index.php?topic=20.msg91#msg91
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...n-cold-83.html
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...-beat-you.html
There are more out there if you care to take the time to dig for them. Oh, and don't forget the smoking gun reported in Post #866 in this thread.
http://www.r56mcs.com/index.php?topic=20.msg91#msg91
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...n-cold-83.html
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...-beat-you.html
There are more out there if you care to take the time to dig for them. Oh, and don't forget the smoking gun reported in Post #866 in this thread.
#899
Just off the top of my head, here are 3 with multiple reports in two of them:
http://www.r56mcs.com/index.php?topic=20.msg91#msg91
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...n-cold-83.html
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...-beat-you.html
There are more out there if you care to take the time to dig for them. Oh, and don't forget the smoking gun reported in Post #866 in this thread.
http://www.r56mcs.com/index.php?topic=20.msg91#msg91
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...n-cold-83.html
http://www.mini2.com/forum/2nd-gen-f...-beat-you.html
There are more out there if you care to take the time to dig for them. Oh, and don't forget the smoking gun reported in Post #866 in this thread.
#900