R50/53 Future for the 02-06
Future for the 02-06
I had an interesting discussion with Waylan last night (Waymotorworks) he brought up the future of the mod market for the 02-06 as the new "turbo" 07 comes online..... he would do 10-15 pullies in a weekend and now the demand is down some.... his feeling is that when the 07-08s etc come online that the 02-06 mod market will diminish his business if he does not adddress the new model.... hard to argue with that. My thought is that as the new cars come out the old cars will get ...older..and cheaper and fall into the hands of a new group of owners that will be new to mods.....keping the market going.... (lots of old Miatas etc with lots of mods out there).... with the advent of the 62 kit and ecu tunning options.... new exhausts that I know are coming...new headers...new shifters.... etc...etc ... what do you all think?..... I am hoping that the mod market for our "new classics" stays vibrant if not strong.... again what do you all think?????
I'd say you're both right! Seriously, I think some will hold back on making the jump to the new model (and keep some of the mod market going), especially those with lots of $$ into their cars. But eventually that's going to get thin, especially since there are so few MINIs on the road (relative to other cars that are mod friendly).
I think the questions should be:
-- what is the ratio or percentage of Mini's being sold by their original owners?
-- what portion of the aftermarket product line is one-time-use items that won't need replacement by an original owner than keeps the car?
If I keep my Mini forever, there's a chance I will hit a curb and need a new rim. Springs, in theory I suppose, could / would need to be replaced -- someday. How long is my pulley going to hold out? Is my seat going to just give out one day? The durability of a mod and the unwilingness of an owner to seel the car is likely critical to assessing the projected need for an aftermarket.
But what the hell do I know, anyway....
-- what is the ratio or percentage of Mini's being sold by their original owners?
-- what portion of the aftermarket product line is one-time-use items that won't need replacement by an original owner than keeps the car?
If I keep my Mini forever, there's a chance I will hit a curb and need a new rim. Springs, in theory I suppose, could / would need to be replaced -- someday. How long is my pulley going to hold out? Is my seat going to just give out one day? The durability of a mod and the unwilingness of an owner to seel the car is likely critical to assessing the projected need for an aftermarket.
But what the hell do I know, anyway....
Originally Posted by abuzavi
I think the questions should be:
-- what is the ratio or percentage of Mini's being sold by their original owners?
-- what portion of the aftermarket product line is one-time-use items that won't need replacement by an original owner than keeps the car?
If I keep my Mini forever, there's a chance I will hit a curb and need a new rim. Springs, in theory I suppose, could / would need to be replaced -- someday. How long is my pulley going to hold out? Is my seat going to just give out one day? The durability of a mod and the unwilingness of an owner to seel the car is likely critical to assessing the projected need for an aftermarket.
But what the hell do I know, anyway....
-- what is the ratio or percentage of Mini's being sold by their original owners?
-- what portion of the aftermarket product line is one-time-use items that won't need replacement by an original owner than keeps the car?
If I keep my Mini forever, there's a chance I will hit a curb and need a new rim. Springs, in theory I suppose, could / would need to be replaced -- someday. How long is my pulley going to hold out? Is my seat going to just give out one day? The durability of a mod and the unwilingness of an owner to seel the car is likely critical to assessing the projected need for an aftermarket.
But what the hell do I know, anyway....
Will this car become like the early Mustangs and Camaros....etc....?
I have enough knowledge of simple economic theory to make arguements based on those "laws" but will there be demand for the mods for years to come.....
Before long certain items for the 02-06 MINIs are likely to become harder to find........but still available if you spend a bit more time looking.
Right now, however, you might be able to get a real deal on mod parts as vendors try to reduce their inventory for the old, new MINI ahead of the new, new MINI.
Dealers will have incredibly expensive parts for the 02-06 MINI for at least 10 years, maybe much longer.
Right now, however, you might be able to get a real deal on mod parts as vendors try to reduce their inventory for the old, new MINI ahead of the new, new MINI.
Dealers will have incredibly expensive parts for the 02-06 MINI for at least 10 years, maybe much longer.
Originally Posted by resmini
Before long certain items for the 02-06 MINIs are likely to become harder to find........but still available if you spend a bit more time looking.
Right now, however, you might be able to get a real deal on mod parts as vendors try to reduce their inventory for the old, new MINI ahead of the new, new MINI.
Dealers will have incredibly expensive parts for the 02-06 MINI for at least 10 years, maybe much longer.
Right now, however, you might be able to get a real deal on mod parts as vendors try to reduce their inventory for the old, new MINI ahead of the new, new MINI.
Dealers will have incredibly expensive parts for the 02-06 MINI for at least 10 years, maybe much longer.
I would like JCW CF mirror caps
So let me ask you guys this. Do you think that there will be a blow out of mod parts for the ’02 – ’06 this year causing those kinds of parts to increase in cost next year due to the fact that there is a shortage of them? Maybe that scenario takes a year to happen or they blow out in ’07 and cost raise in ’08? Or will that kind of thing even happen?
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MINI's are so easy to get now i think it's going to be like other
popular mod cars... the older models will continue for a few years
but unless the new ones completely flop, the interest in our MINI's
will continue to decline.
popular mod cars... the older models will continue for a few years
but unless the new ones completely flop, the interest in our MINI's
will continue to decline.
Interesting ... MikeyTheMINI (ICE installer in UK, see www.newMINIstuff.com) thinks there will be MORE demand for aftermarket for the 02-06 MINIs, as they come out of warranty and get re-sold to new owners that want to have more fun with the cars ...
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
Originally Posted by GBMINI
Interesting ... MikeyTheMINI (ICE installer in UK, see www.newMINIstuff.com) thinks there will be MORE demand for aftermarket for the 02-06 MINIs, as they come out of warranty and get re-sold to new owners that want to have more fun with the cars ...
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
My guess is the direction for aftermarket mods for the 02-06 MINI is down.
Let's take one car and compare it... The Ford Mustang.
Fox Body Mustang parts are still in high demand.
94-04 Mustang parts are still in high demand.
05+ Mustang parts are still being developed, and are also in high demand.
Basically some peolple like the older models better, or that is what they can afford, and therefore that is what they buy and modify. The 05+ Mustangs need aftermarket parts now so they probably take up most of the R&D time, but I don't see older parts losing sales either.
Drew
Fox Body Mustang parts are still in high demand.
94-04 Mustang parts are still in high demand.
05+ Mustang parts are still being developed, and are also in high demand.
Basically some peolple like the older models better, or that is what they can afford, and therefore that is what they buy and modify. The 05+ Mustangs need aftermarket parts now so they probably take up most of the R&D time, but I don't see older parts losing sales either.
Drew
Shoot...
you can still get seat buns for a 64 1/2 Mustang! But that is really a collector car, and had the original number of cars high enough to keep a very good market going for 40 years....
FWIW, I called 2-3 Mini tuning shops last week in the Bay Area. None had a pulley in stock. There will be forces that will both increase and decrease the Mini mod target market. only time will tell which forces win in the short term. Long term? That's obvious.....
But don't worry about pulleys. Those are easy to machine once the CNC code is done. Worry about trim items and the like, once these are gone, and they stop making them, it's a real PITA to find that kind of stuff.
Matt
FWIW, I called 2-3 Mini tuning shops last week in the Bay Area. None had a pulley in stock. There will be forces that will both increase and decrease the Mini mod target market. only time will tell which forces win in the short term. Long term? That's obvious.....
But don't worry about pulleys. Those are easy to machine once the CNC code is done. Worry about trim items and the like, once these are gone, and they stop making them, it's a real PITA to find that kind of stuff.
Matt
I mean look at the honda's (dont flame me for bringing up honda) they are still making new mods and parts for old 89 civic hatchbacks and 2nd gen crx's. and although the b18c and b16a are old news when it comes to the newer K series, parts are still in high demand and new products still come out for the older engines. I mean it took some years before they developed the V-Tec killer cams, and ITB intake. To me it seems the longer the car is out the more R&D can be done resulting in better and better products that can be developed.
I mean look at the air cooled VW market. The flat 4 air cooled VW engine has been around since the 1950's and new parts and items come out all the time for those engines. (I love air cooled VW's!!!
)
I believe that normally after 5 years of a car being out on the market the real juicy mods start to be offered, like twin charge kits/m62 SC kits ect. I dont think they should deminish as long as people have the urge to improve the cars performance. But if all the vendors give up on the 1st Gen SC engine, then yes the mod market will die and i will be sad.
I mean look at the air cooled VW market. The flat 4 air cooled VW engine has been around since the 1950's and new parts and items come out all the time for those engines. (I love air cooled VW's!!!
)I believe that normally after 5 years of a car being out on the market the real juicy mods start to be offered, like twin charge kits/m62 SC kits ect. I dont think they should deminish as long as people have the urge to improve the cars performance. But if all the vendors give up on the 1st Gen SC engine, then yes the mod market will die and i will be sad.
For most cars the mod market is not great in the initial years of productions because not many people have the car and even less businesses are willing to take the risks involved with trying to market to a unknow market share. As many cars reach a second or third generation there are usually more parts available for the first generation model and as those older cars are sold to younger buyers who are more willing the modify their cars than first time buyers. I think you will see a strong aftermarket for the first gen of the MINI for quite a few more years, especially as you have more second hand owners appering.
Given my experience with the Miatas, "the reports of the demise of the MINI MkI are highly exaggerated". I'm amazed at the volume of mods still being done on NA (90-97) Miatas, as well as the NB. The only 'capping' I saw was WRT engine mods on the 90-93 (1.6L) models, and that only applied to superchargers.
Given that in MC2 they announced the delivery of the 150,000th MINI in the US, I think the market has some depth. As was said above, as the cars get more affordable on the used market, additional waves of owners will want to modify their cars. Still, the big margin %/$ come from the people who need the latest and greatest and are willing to pay for it. The 'standard' mods provide volume, but at lower margin. And the beat goes on...
Given that in MC2 they announced the delivery of the 150,000th MINI in the US, I think the market has some depth. As was said above, as the cars get more affordable on the used market, additional waves of owners will want to modify their cars. Still, the big margin %/$ come from the people who need the latest and greatest and are willing to pay for it. The 'standard' mods provide volume, but at lower margin. And the beat goes on...
I believe that as time goes on, a larger percentage of the 02-06 MINIs will actually be owned by enthusiasts as some disappear from the market completely (due to accidents, etc), and the rest that are currently owned or leased by casual owners are bought by MINI enthusiasts in the used car market (especially those that were previously unable to afford a MINI). Therefore I would expect that the performance mod aftermarket will remain fairly strong for quite sometime. Many current MINI owners aren't going to see a need to suddenly go buy an 07+ model, particularly if they have already made a heavy investment in modding their now, "classic" MINI. But this is just my opinion, I may be completely full of $hiz...
Seems unlikely to me, I'd think most people who seriously wanted to mod there MINIs say to heck with the warranty and do it anyway.
I still think the #'s are important here, and may mean mustangs and Miata are poor comparison groups. There are, what, 150,000 MINIs on the road in the USA? Doesn't Ford sell more mustangs than that every year?
Will the R50/R52/R53 continue to be mod'd? Sure
Will the R50/R52/R53 continue to be mod'd at the same levels? Doubtful
I fully expect there will continue to be a segment of R50/R52/R53 owners that will continue to mod, but I definitely wouldn't anticipate it would continue at current levels. Seems to me anyone that was in the mod business would want to add the R56/R55 platform and mod there to grow their business.
Will the R50/R52/R53 continue to be mod'd at the same levels? Doubtful
I fully expect there will continue to be a segment of R50/R52/R53 owners that will continue to mod, but I definitely wouldn't anticipate it would continue at current levels. Seems to me anyone that was in the mod business would want to add the R56/R55 platform and mod there to grow their business.
Then there's what happened to the MGB. Over time, when an MGB changed hands, any mods that were done were removed by the new owners, and the cars restored to their original condition. Mods are still sold for the MGB, Moss Motors and MGOC are among many that sell mods. But it's a small percentage.
I think I read that the 150,000th Mini was just sold. the 2002-06 Mini's are now a finite number, and collectable. They will enter the realm of worth more in original condition, than modded.
Going back to my example, there certainly are still modded MGB's out there, mine included, but they are becoming fewer, while the restorations are becoming more common.
I think I read that the 150,000th Mini was just sold. the 2002-06 Mini's are now a finite number, and collectable. They will enter the realm of worth more in original condition, than modded.
Going back to my example, there certainly are still modded MGB's out there, mine included, but they are becoming fewer, while the restorations are becoming more common.
Originally Posted by GBMINI
Interesting ... MikeyTheMINI (ICE installer in UK, see www.newMINIstuff.com) thinks there will be MORE demand for aftermarket for the 02-06 MINIs, as they come out of warranty and get re-sold to new owners that want to have more fun with the cars ...
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
I intend to keep my JCW stock until the warranty is up, after that, it's Porsche time and let the mods begin for the MINI.
The other thing people need to think about is that while R&D may slow on our cars, and while there may not be as many parts warehoused, I'd imagine it would be like other industries where re-production of previously designed parts is very cost effective and thus we have access to nearly everything we have now save for any hand-built stuff that has been un/re-tooled.
Originally Posted by GBMINI
Interesting ... MikeyTheMINI (ICE installer in UK, see www.newMINIstuff.com) thinks there will be MORE demand for aftermarket for the 02-06 MINIs, as they come out of warranty and get re-sold to new owners that want to have more fun with the cars ...
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
I would expect this argument to hold for engine mods too; once the car has no warranty, there's less to put owners off doing stuff.
This is my opinion as well
Depending on where you live.....not too far for you, ashboomstick.....Mini of the Main Line in NW suburban Philadelphia together with Helix Motorsports, offers a number of mods that while not warrantied by MiniUSA, are given warranty coverage by the dealer.....CAI, short shifter, 17% pulley, single can exhaust, GIAC tuning, greenstuff brake pads.....and probably more.
My '02 had all of these anyway and I never had any regrets. As it stands now, I feel fortunate that I've been able to modify my '06 MCS without having to worry about warranty issues. Great dealership. It's too bad that this kind of offer isn't typical.
My '02 had all of these anyway and I never had any regrets. As it stands now, I feel fortunate that I've been able to modify my '06 MCS without having to worry about warranty issues. Great dealership. It's too bad that this kind of offer isn't typical.
Also...
Another thing to keep in mind is one of the main groups the MINI appeals to and that is young males aged 12-18. Many of those who still cannot drive and if they can drive perhaps cannot afford a MINI. Once MINIs drop in price the 12 year olds now will be able to buy a 6 year old 2006 MINI. And of course teenaged guys will love to mod their car to make it cooler, faster, more fun, etc...





