Well fellow F1 fans now that the beginning of the season is a little more than 24hrs away does anyone want to take a stab at who will win the pole at Australian GP and who will end up on the podium?

I'll start us off. Let me polish up the old crystal ball and take a peek into the future.

Alright then here are my predictions for the points finishers in Australia...

POLE: #6 – Nico Rosberg Mercedes

1st Place: #6 – Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2nd Place: #77 – Valtteri Bottas Williams
3rd Place: #44 – Lewis Hamilton Mercedes

Other notables:

4th Place: #7 – Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari
5th Place: #5 – Sebastian Vettel Ferrari
6th Place: #19 – Felipe Massa Williams
7th Place:#3 – Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull
8th Place: #8 – Romain Grosjean Lotus
9th Place: #26 – Daniil Kvyat Red Bull
10th Place: #33 – Max Verstappen Toro Rosso

OK... Now that I accomplished that, I am off to pick the winning Lottery numbers!

 

Interesting, Van der Garde won a lawsuit against Sauber for cancelling his contract. The Australian court says Sauber must let him drive the car:

http://www.grandprix247.com/2015/03/...gainst-sauber/

Sabre, I'll post my picks soon, but I'm sure I'll be way off!

 

Pole: Hamilton

1st Place: Hamilton
2nd Place: Rosberg
3rd Place: Ricciardo

4th Place: Bottas
5th Place: Massa
6th Place: Vettel
7th Place: Raikkonen
8th Place: Kvyat
9th Place: Hulkenberg
10th Place: Sainz Jr.

That's tougher to choose than I thought. Red Bull had a terrible pre-season last year and Ricciardo still came 3rd before he was DQ'd, so I think he can do it again. Ferrari was tough to place as they were fast in Jerez but not as fast in Catalunya. I really think Hulkenberg can get points but the lack of testing on the new Force India worries me a bit. I think Sainz will out perform Verstappen because no one is putting pressure on him.

 

Pole: Rosberg

1st: Hamilton
2nd: Rosberg
3rd: Bottas

4th: Vettel
5th: Massa
6th: Grojean
7th: Ricciardo
8th: Kimi
9th: Verstappen

DNS: Sauber, ManorMarussia
DNF: Maldonado, at least 1 Force India, at least 1 Mclaren

 

Ferrari looking really strong after FP2!

 

Seems as if they finally have a car that can contend.

Melbourne looked absolutely beautiful - I wish I was there. The two Mercedes were on point as usual and seem as if they're on track to be the team to beat this year. Sucks Kimi got clipped in the beginning but that's racing.

Side note: this forum isn't on Tapatalk correct?

 

Kimi was still doing great though. It was the dang pit issue that did him in.

 

No, there is a crappy separate app,unfortunately.

 

Did he get hit on that side, if so maybe that damaged the wheel/threads.

 

The BBC theorized that the hub was damaged during the first pit stop, the hit on lap 1 appeared to be on the right side, but the wheel issue was on the left rear.

But obviously Ferrari's figured some stuff out with that power unit, and it appears that Red Bull doesn't handle not being at the front very well.

And McLaren - absolute friggen disaster...

 

Like was mentioned above he got hit on the right side. I read that the pit crew cross-threaded the nut on the first stop. He also said he had diffuser/floor damage when Sainz Jr. hit him in the first corner. So he could have had a great day.

 

I was expecting a Renault/Red Bull slap fight to break out - I just didn't expect it to happen so soon...

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/118087

 

Red Bull says that they might leave F1... Yeah, not buying it....

http://www.theblokeandabird.com/blog...dont-bet-on-it

 

Wouldn't bother me too much. I would hate to lose a top team, and I used to really like Red Bull. It was a private team taking to the factory teams, with a big budget though. Lately their whining is really getting to me. You're in a slump, it happens to every team, ditch Renault if you really think their the problem and get out of it. Don't threaten to leave because you're not dominating anymore.

 

The true test of leadership isn't how you handle success - but how you handle defeat... I had been impressed with Christian Horner up until the run up to Australia, I've lost a lot of respect for him over the last few weeks...

 

The stunner seams to be that this year's Renault engine is down on power to last year's. I don't think anyone could have reasonably expected that outcome:
http://www.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/3...hind-mercedes/

It's not all Horner, sounds like Bernie is stirring the pot, and Horner is his mouth piece of the day:
http://www.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/3...-equalisation/

a

 

No one is stopping Renault from building the best engine they can, therefore I'm assuming that's what they did. It's apparently not good enough, but why is that an excuse to cripple the Mercedes? I remember when F1 was about the teams pushing the boundaries to build the best car they could. I want those days back again.

 

When you step back for a second and look at the cockamanie token system related to engine upgrades, it's not surprising that Renault's engine is being so badly outclassed right now. Since the manufacturers didn't have to submit their engines for homologation prior to the start of the season - upgrade tokens are still available, and Renault has more than anybody else...

Currently it's:
Renault 12 of 32
Ferrari 10 of 32
Honda 9 of 32
Mercedes 7 of 32

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2015/0...r-development/

The question is - is 12 tokens enough for Renault to get their act together? I think it potentially is, especially if the driveability issues can be resolved at the same time that the performance tokens are used or if its a software issue that won't impact token spend.

As for Bernie's remarks regarding equalization - just further proof that Bernie doesn't give a ____ for the fans, the sport, or competition. He's only interested in "The Show" because he believes that it's "The Show" that draws in the money. Yes, "The Show" is important, but artificial constructs to improve "The Show" just makes the sport artificial, and quite possibly is why global viewership is down and German fans are turning away...

This isn't a situation where some trick part is giving Mercedes an advantage - short of forcing them to turn the engines down or add weight to the car there's nothing that can be done to slow them down. Bernie, Horner and their supporters need to just accept that with the new Formula Mercedes got it right, Renault and Ferrari got it wrong. Ferrari seems to be figuring it out, but Renault appears to be drifting aimlessly in the doldrums...

Anybody who's whining about "Mercedes dominance" doesn't know about the history of the series - or they choose to forget that in the 70s and 80s it wasn't uncommon for the majority of the field to be lapped. They forget that in the days of refueling and longer tracks that it wasn't unusual for the margin of victory to be measured in MINUTES...

Mercedes may be dominating now, Red Bull may have dominated before them - but the last several years has seen some of the closest racing in the history of the sport...

 

Renault can only do so much with the engine upgrades frozen during the course of the season, and restricted to X-many engine upgrade tokens that can be used for improvements (whatever the @#$% those tokens mean).

To me, the "show" and appeal to "fans" is one and the same thing. Both suffer if you have rules that allow one engine builder (Merc) to carryover performance advantage from year to year to year, with the rest of the field 30+ seconds behind an in no contention for the win. Nor able to do anything to catch up.

To me, it's not about slow Mercedes down, it's about un-cuffing Renault and Ferrari to R&D their engines so that they have a chance to catch up. Watching Rosberg and Hamilton compete for wins, exclusively, is getting seriously boring.

a

 

You're right, to a point. As I mentioned above, Renault is hording tokens. If they committed more of their tokens they'd probably have an engine that isn't nearly as dreadful.



If that was true then people wouldn't be waxing poetic about the Prost/Senna years. And again, even as Mercedes "runs off" with the championship, overall the field is much closer than it was 15 or more years ago, and last year we had some of the best racing in years. Compare that to Vettel's 2013 win... Even if Webber sat out all season, Vettel alone scored Red Bull enough points to win the Constructors... Heck most of Vettel's 2012 & 2013 strategy was get out front fast and stay out of DRS range, something he did handily, and once he got out of DRS range he was pretty much untouchable and we never saw him again on the TV coverage until the end of the race. At least with Rosberg/Hamilton there is something happening up front worth paying attention to.

And again, both Renault and Ferrari elected not to use all of their tokens this year. Why? By making a conscious decision to hold back on performance upgrades they're willingly conceding a portion (if not all of the season) to Mercedes. Yes, by holding back tokens they can see where they're weak compared to everyone else - but since everyone else is holding back tokens too they can see where everyone else is weak - and target improvements in those areas... Neither team needs to be "uncuffed" they just need to actually upgrade their engines. Given what the current token spend is - if teams are "cuffed" it's their own fault, not the regulations.

But getting back to "The Show" not every pro sports contest is griping and heart stopping every game of the season. Baseball is arguably more fun when batters are crushing ***** into the next county - yet the MLB is wise enough to realize that moving the outfield wall in 50 feet isn't the answer to make for a better show. Low scoring pitching duels have got to be some of the most boring games out there - but there's never been a move to eliminate them. There is also no rule and never will be a rule that says that if your team wins 3 or more World Series in a row that you have to bench your best players to improve "The Show" or make it easier for the other teams.

There's arguably more money in the MLB, yet it doesn't have the same global reach as Formula 1, but the MLB knows that sometimes you have teams that are stronger than others. They also know that if you don't try and artificially equalize the teams things naturally shift around the league, better than that, they realize that even small market teams (aka back markers) are just as important to the sport as the big market teams and the franchises with over 100 years of history. Everybody gets a slice of MLB's broadcast revenues - not just the top teams. Yes the teams that win the World Series and the Championships get more - but even the lowly Cincinnati Reds get to take home some money from the league....

It's only in auto sports that there seems to be this need to manipulate the sport to improve "The Show." I hear NASCAR's doing the same thing - and it's not working too well for them either.

 

Hit the nail right on the head mbabischkin! I used to watch NASCAR until they implemented "The Chase". Gave it a few years and never warmed up to it, so I stopped watching. Even if the token system was removed, it wouldn't change anything. Do people think Merc would just sit idle if restrictions are removed? Heck no they would dump millions into staying ahead. It would drive costs through the roof even more. The token system is there to try and help keep costs lower. Simply put the team with the biggest budget would win. Every era has that standout team. McLaren with Senna/Prost, Ferrari with Schumacher, Red Bull with Vettel, and now Merc, (I'm sure there are many more examples too). Heck Ford still sits second with most wins from an engine manufacturer, and they haven't won in 12 years!

1 Ferrari 217
2 Ford 176
3 Renault 168
4 Mercedes 116

 

So, since it took just one race for folks to proclaim that Mercedes will dominate and the season will suck because of it - will we be able to put those claims to bed after this weekend?

 

I hope so but Ferrari did win with one less pit stop. I think Mercedes erred on taking tires during the safety car.

 

Either that, or putting Hamilton on the hard tires at the last stop. I know they played a bit of pit radio where the team tried to tell him that all they had were used medium ones, but that just makes it worse. They didn't save a decent set for the last stint in the race? I think he could have been giving Vettel a race in the last couple of laps, even on a used set.

 

You know it used to be that finding stats on a race was a whole lot easier... I'm pretty sure Vettel ran that on a 2 stop strategy - where without the safety car it was looking like it was supposed to be a 3 stop race... If that's true Seb always had an advantage on the Mercs - as there was no way they were going to pull a two stopper out.

However, since the practice sessions this looked to be a strong race for Ferrari where they would be nipping at Mercedes heels. Alan McNish did a side by side comparison of Hamilton's fastest lap & Kimi's fastest - and for 2 of the three sectors Kimi was keeping up with Hamilton's pace, Lewis broke free at the start of Sector 3 and could open the gap there, but other than that Kimi had matched the pace. The race seemed to bear that out too - with few exceptions, when Lewis picked up time on Seb it was typically less than a second a lap. There were a few laps where he picked up just over a second, but many more where he lost time on Seb.

Combined that with (if I'm right, and I can't find the stats to confirm it) what appears to be better tire wear from the Ferrari's and 2015 could very well not be the Lewis and Nico show...

And speaking of Nico - what is going on there? Second race in a row where his tried to get his team to radio him information that they're not allowed to provide him, and it just didn't seem like he was committed out there... If there was a result that appeared to be more due to the car than the driver - that looked like it...