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Just in case it helps anyone, several months ago I posted about my '11 Countryman eating serpentine belts. I couldn't find anything wrong with the tensioner or friction wheel, but wasn't looking high enough.
Come to find out, the water pump pulley was getting potholes and that's what the root problem was.
Fascinating. In for an oil change today on my 2012 All4 MCS and the service notes include "Pulley cover cracking". I must have something similar brewing.
