These are the National Insurance Crime Bureau's Top 10 Hot Cars, "most stolen vehicles" for 2013:
https://www.nicb.org/newsroom/news-r...-wheels-report

1 Honda Accord
2 Honda Civic
3 Chevrolet Pickup (Full Size)
4 Ford Pickup (Full Size)
5 Toyota Camry
6 Dodge Pickup (Full Size)
7 Dodge Caravan
8 Jeep Cherokee/GrandCherokee
9 Toyota Corolla
10 Nissan Altima

I picked 2013 because it matches the year the most recent NHTSA report on the rate of thefts.

This is nothing but the raw number of total thefts. This data is presented as if this is a list of cars most likely to be stolen. This is absolutely false. Not one of the 10 models on this list ranks higher than 40th (the Altima) measured by the rate of theft per car.

These same names, more or less, appear whether you're looking at the 2010 list or the 2016 list. The NICB's list is just the most popular cars. Not the most likely to be stolen. The opposite is actually the case: most of these cars are LESS likely to be stolen than average.

The #1 Hot Car, the Honda Accord, was actually the 120th most likely to be stolen car in 2013. The rate was 0.6207 per 1,000 Accords, half the overall rate of 1.1562. Only one eighth as likely as the #1 Mercedes CL's rate of 5.1458.

The #2 Honda Civic' rate of theft rank was 137 in 2013, with 0.5225 Civics stolen per 1,000 built, well below the national average, and an order of magnitude less than the CL's.

This is the NHTSA's rates of the 10 most stolen vehicles in 2013.
http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/nvs...TheftRates.pdf

Rank Make-Model Thefts per 1,000

1 Mercedes-Benz CL-Class 5.1458
2 Chrysler Dodge Charger 5.1066
3 Toyota Yaris 4.6299
4 GM Chevrolet Impala 4.5348
5 Chrysler Dodge Challenger 4.4074
6 Maserati Quattroporte 4.4053
7 BMW M6 3.876
8 GM Chevrolet Captiva 3.7332
9 Nissan Maxima 3.7009
10 BMW M5 3.6799

Here is a recent Forbes article that says "While some might expect flashy sports cars and costly luxury sedans to be the most obvious targets for car thieves, data shows that in fact mainstream models are the most often stolen rides on the road, both as brand new and well-worn used vehicles."

Incorrect. Thieves prefer flashy sports cars and costly luxury sedans. Boring Accords and minivans and pickups are relatively unlikely to be targeted.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorze.../#2139b0fc3736

This 2012 Consumer Reports post gets it right, using different data, claim frequency and dollar amount of claims. Again, flashy sports cars and luxury cars dominate. None of the commonplace Accords and Civics and Caravans from the "Hot Cars" are on this list:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/n...ides/index.htm

The NHTSA ranked the Mini Cooper 160th in 2013, with a rate of 0.3249 per 1,000 produced. In 2010 the Mini Cooper was third from the bottom in claim frequency ranking, with a rate of 0.8, compared to a rate of 10.8 for the #1 ranked Cadillac Escalade, which had average losses per claim of $11,934, vs $2,203.

 

By the way, I wouldn't over-interpret the Mini Cooper data. The sample size is small. Here's the neighborhood:

Rank Model No. Stolen No. Made Rate
159 GM Chevrolet Volt 9 27,484 0.3274
160 BMW Mini Cooper 24 73,871 0.3249
161 Toyota RAV4 71 224,601 0.3161

The RAV4's numbers are probably pretty accurate, but only a third as many Minis were made. The Volt's data is even more sparse. I'll calculate the error later, when I remember how.

If you scroll to the bottom of the list, there's 29 models with zero reported thefts, but these are your Aston Martins and Lotus Evorsas, with production numbers in the few thousands. The data probably mean nothing with so few cars. Or maybe they have armed guards. No way to know.

It's interesting that of 26,000 Nissan Leafs, only one was taken. No doubt because of the car's brilliant security system, which comes standard. They're all that ugly. Similarly, out of 31,000 Scions, nobody stole even one.